After the heavy regulation of property funds will enter the stock market – Sohu securities mkdv-02

After the heavy regulation of property funds will enter the stock market? Sohu securities         cool winds cool the property market early market regulation four dragons in 3 town trading volume fell cliff type         stock market effect: after the heavy regulation of property funds will enter the stock market?     " stock market + " decisive moment! See the previous market regulation after A shares how to get     market brake or let the stock market gas investment in the four quarter will have to see the performance of     Qianhai Kaiyuan Yang Delong: real property bubble obviously than to buy blue chips the writer is Chen Jie, Zheng Kai GF strategic research Department, Cao Liulong, the original study published in GF strategy of WeChat public number". National Day holiday, the introduction of 21 cities intensive property purchase policy. Investors are generally concerned about the resumption of the purchase of so many cities can really make prices fall? And if the decline in housing prices will be forced back to the stock market? On the above issues, our view is: 1, since 2005 the price trend, the price of the callback has certain rules, and to use the administrative regulation of power to reverse cycle trend is difficult. Since 2005, domestic prices almost keeps the trend of rising, and every three years there will be a downward adjustment (08 September, 11 in September, 14 in May), but the adjustment is not (each callback is bottom up). The real estate regulation overweight, you can learn from history after May 2010 the city issued the first "purchase order" of the period, but it was on the price formation of two months of short-term suppression, but not really reverse the trend of rising prices, in the "purchase order" issued after more than a year (September 2011), prices did not appear in the true sense of the callback, and then superimposed on the impact of monetary policy tightening, economic cycle and other factors fall down.   2, the current round of real estate regulation is also in opposition to the cyclical trend, so it is necessary to continue to increase the effectiveness of the regulation in the short term, and even the need for monetary policy coordination. In the past every time the price adjustment of the "normal" time interval is three years, and now from a round of price adjustment only after two years and four months, so a bit "and periodic trends against" the start of market regulation at this point. According to the 2010 market regulation experience, to see the effect is difficult in the short term, unless the policy of pressure to continue to overweight, even with the tightening of monetary policy. 3, further, if the current round of real estate regulation is effective in the short term, whether it will lead to the housing market funds back to the stock market? Domestic experience shows that falling house prices in the currency easing cycle or in favor of the stock market, but the housing price decline in the monetary tightening cycle will not make money back to the stock market. September 2008, May 2014, the two house prices fell in the monetary easing cycle;相关的主题文章: