Anxin fund Yang Kaiwei Fundamentals conducive to the continuation of the bond market-www.gpsoo.net

Yang Kaiwei: Anxin fund fundamentals bond market to continue. Huang Li told reporters during the Spring Festival, the overseas stock market a wailing sound, the prospects for global economic growth uncertainty and oil prices continue to slump and other major risk factors pushing up the risk aversion. In this context, the bond market quietly rising, the rapid decline in yields. Yang Kaiwei, general manager of Anxin fund’s fixed income three, said that the state of economic weakness is difficult to change in a short time, and the fundamentals are conducive to the continuation of the bond market. In large asset allocation, the first concern is to control the risk, and then to reduce the expected rate of return on assets. China Securities Journal: how to look at the bond market in 2016? Yang Kaiwei: from the macro situation, the economy will continue to walk in the L bottom, short-term weakness is hard to change, CPI will continue to run low, deflation is expected to continue, the fundamentals continue to bond market; from the recent national policy direction, fiscal policy will continue to force the fiscal deficit while the probability of further economic expansion, a sharp downturn and deflation is not. We judged that the economy in 2016 will probably rate to maintain the status quo, strive for more time for reform, is expected in 2016 monetary policy remains loose, RRR there is a large space, liquidity worries. In this big background, if not the same as bonds over the past two years ushered in the bull market, but also has not formed the bear market background conditions, so it can give the capital preservation fund to provide a reasonable safety cushion. China Securities Journal: from the current point of view, which bonds have more investment value in the coming year? Yang Kaiwei: from the current situation, the interest rate debt with the central bank in 2015 several times to cut interest rates, has shown a very flat end of the long and short. In this case, the long end of the interest rate decline in space has been from the short end of the interest rate decline in the space to decide, but the short end of the interest rate depends entirely on the central bank’s monetary policy guidance. Relative to the long end of the interest rate debt, the short end of the interest rate yields fell a larger space, also has investment value. For credit debt, in the background of the current supply side reform, the traditional industry overcapacity default probability will rise further in the future, but some industry benefited from falling commodity prices, profits are gradually improving. In addition, in the country to the real estate industry to inventory policy guidance, the future of the real estate industry continues to improve the probability of sales is still relatively large. Therefore, our judgment of credit bonds can be summarized as "strictly controlling risks, distinguishing trades and grasping opportunities."". China Securities Journal: under the background of high income "asset shortage", what are the suggestions for asset allocation in the next year? Yang Kaiwei: the asset shortage we refer to is relative to the asset returns of the past years. In the coming year, we may face a lot of assets, and the expected return is less than the high level of earnings in the past few years. From the current economic situation and the central economic perspective, the future of this probability due to decline in investment returns as a result of the asset shortage intensified or larger. In this context, the first thing we should focus on is to control risks

安信基金杨凯玮:基本面利于债市行情延续   □本报记者 黄丽   春节期间,海外股市一片哀鸣之声,全球经济增长前景不确定以及油价继续暴跌等几大风险因素推升避险情绪。在此背景下,债券市场悄然上涨,收益率快速下行。安信基金固定收益三部总经理杨凯玮表示,经济疲软的状态短期难以改变,基本面有利于债券行情的延续。在大类资产配置上,首先应关注的是控制风险,其次是要降低对资产收益率的预期。   中国证券报:如何看待2016年的债券市场?   杨凯玮:从宏观形势看,经济将继续走在L型的底部,疲软的状态短期难以改变,CPI将持续低位运行,通缩压力有望持续,这种基本面有利于债券行情的延续;从近期国家大的政策方向来看,财政政策会继续发力,财政赤字将扩大,而经济进一步大幅下滑和通缩的概率也不大。我们的判断是2016年的经济将大概率维持现状,为改革争取更多的时间,预期2016年货币政策继续保持宽松,降准还有较大空间,流动性无忧。在这个大的宏观背景下,债券即使无法像过去两年一样迎来大牛市,但也没有形成熊市的背景条件,所以还是可以给保本基金提供一个合理的安全垫。   中国证券报:从目前的角度来看,哪些债券品种在未来一年更具投资价值?   杨凯玮:从当前的情况来看,利率债随着2015年央行的数次降息降准已经呈现出长短端极其平坦的情况。在这种情况下,长端利率下降的空间已经由短端利率下降的空间来决定,而短端利率走势则完全取决于央行的货币政策引导。相对于长端利率债,短端利率债收益率下降的空间更大,也更具有投资价值。   对于信用债,在当前供给侧改革的大背景下,传统产能过剩行业出现违约的概率在未来应该还会进一步上升,但有部分行业受益于大宗商品价格下降,盈利正在逐步改善。另外,在国家对房地产行业去库存的政策指导下,未来房地产行业销售继续改善的概率还是比较大的。因此,我们对信用债的判断可以总结为“严控风险、区分行业、把握机会”。   中国证券报:在高收益“资产荒”的背景下,对未来一年的大类资产配置有何建议?   杨凯玮:我们所指的“资产荒”是相对于过去多年的资产收益情况来说的。未来一年,我们确实可能面临大量资产预期收益率达不到过去几年高收益水平的情况。从目前经济的实际情况和中央对经济的判断来看,未来这种由于投资回报率下降所导致的“资产荒”加剧的概率还是比较大的。在这个大背景下,我们首先应该关注的是控制风险,其次是要降低对资产收益率的预期。   从大类资产配置的角度来说,我们建议原则是:“安全为上,债券为盾,股票为矛”,以风险较小的固定收益类资产为主,辅以股票类的权益资产来提供创造超额收益的机会。近期非常火爆的保本基金就是按照这种策略来配置资产的,即以债券为主,通过债券的票息和资本利得建立安全垫,根据市场情况和安全垫的规模来确定安全垫的放大倍数,再以放大后的安全垫来配置股票,股票的仓位基本上不会超过基金资产规模的30%。   中国证券报:债券投资方面将采取何种策略?   杨凯玮:债券投资主要采取久期匹配的策略,将整个债券资产组合的平均久期尽量匹配到与产品的保本期限一致。在这个基础上采取较短久期(3个月内)与较长久期(2-3年)分配的方式达到债券资产组合的平均久期。在配置品种方面,我们还是以信用债为主要配置对象,通过信用利差来提高整个债券资产组合的整体收益。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: