By early marriage of Uber may be a failure carpool business model has been destroyed-windjview

By early marriage of Uber may be a failure carpool business model maximum damage has been eliminated carpool business model has destroyed the second network about the new car finally appeared, the detailed rules for the implementation of the platform ecosystem have resorted to force around the "standardization", which not only contributed to the marriage drops and Uber, B2C and C2C broke the barriers. It will inevitably lead to a series of strategic change. In 1, platform competition in the Beijing Shanghai draft of the most influential people in the car to control tightening, such as the Beijing Beijing car, Shanghai Shanghai, displacement and wheelbase restrictions and always cover drops emerge in an endless stream, don’t put the glint and flash of cold steel. For example, Shanghai draft requirements of fuel axle distance of 2700 mm or more, the new energy vehicle wheelbase of 2650 mm or more, the equivalent of the B car into the threshold of access to the A-class car drops fast is simply drops the force before the crowning calamity, self car business especially hit, it was determined the 3 models of Citroen Sega, BYD and Nissan Sun Qin, in addition to the latter barely, another 2 A-class car has been sentenced to death, has entered the 3 years owing on the loan cycle in a considerable part of the driver’s case, to be taken by surprise by. After the mouth filled with let drops of a dummy eat Huang2 Lian2 suffering, according to data released last year, drops had indicated in the north of Guangzhou Shenzhen capacity especially on higher quality of local drivers, the lowest proportion of Shenzhen local drivers are about 35%, 47.29% in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou all the more than 60%, some of the economic better development of the regional center of the city such as Wuhan, Chengdu, Hangzhou, is the region of more than 95% to the upside. However, in the implementation of the draft of the Beijing Shanghai drops in response to the new deal, the data are "deteriorating" to Shanghai 470 thousand driver has been activated, only more than 1 people to have a local residence, after a lapse of a year so be quite different, visible drops greatly agitated. The new deal has finally returned for the two core elements, namely, weaken the network about car platform scale advantages, forced a buffer is arranged between the network and the taxi about cars. In such a market situation, the invention drops and Uber to create redundant demand at the C end, then at the B end of the release of a large number of supply, the rapid ripening market practices must come to an end. After the New Deal era, as the gray zone was quickly clarified by policy, the capacity of the net platform vehicle was squeezed, and it is facing a double blow to stripping the excess capacity and the drop of the pseudo demand, especially the competitive advantage of the express train will be greatly weakened. In such a deep wide north first-tier cities, drops will have to face a strange competition, with limited fleet size to ensure the profitability of cycling, this will give the Shenzhou car safety has always been shouting and claiming to be the second, continuous subsidies, frequently issued a creative man easily to the car with the opportunity. But the feeling is countermeasure drops + intimidation, a kindly grant various household equal rights, a call not to let people lose their confidence and enthusiasm for innovation, and their ability to eliminate hidden unemployment in that capacity to background, also deliberately showing on the net about car prices concerns about car prices may rise to claim net taxi more than 2 times. On

滴滴过早联姻Uber可能是一个败笔 拼车商业模式已被消灭   拼车商业模式已被消灭   文 虫二   网约车新政的最大杀伤力终于显现,各地纷纷祭出强迫平台生态“正规化”的实施细则,这不但促成滴滴和Uber联姻,打破了B2C和C2C的藩篱,也必然引发了一系列战略变化。   变化 1、平台竞争加剧   在最具影响力的京沪草案中,人车管控大幅收紧,诸如京人京车,沪籍沪牌,排量及轴距等限制层出不穷,而刀光剑影始终罩住滴滴不放。   例如上海草案中要求燃油车轴距达2700毫米以上,新能源车轴距为2650毫米以上,相当于把B级车变成了准入门槛,对以A级车为主的滴滴快车简直是灭顶之灾,滴滴之前发力的自营车业务尤受打击,当时它确定的3种车型雪铁龙世嘉、日产阳光和比亚迪秦,除后者勉强达标外,另外2款A级车已判了死刑,在相当一部分司机已经进入3年月还贷周期的情况下,更让滴滴措手不及。   此前的口满也让滴滴有哑巴吃黄莲之苦,按去年发布的大数据,滴滴曾暗示在北上广深的运力特别依赖素质更高的本地司机,最低的深圳本地司机比例也有35%左右,北京则为47.29%,上海和广州全部超过60%,一些经济发展较好的区域中心城市如武汉、成都、杭州等,更是上攻到95%以上的区间。   然而在滴滴对京沪新政实施草案的回应中,这个数据却“恶化”到上海47万已激活司机中,仅1万余人拥有本地户籍,时隔一年如此大相径庭,可见滴滴方寸已乱。   新政终于在两个核心要素上发威,即削弱网约车平台的规模优势,强行在出租车和网约车之间设置了缓冲区间。在这样的市场格局下,滴滴和Uber所发明的先在C端创造冗余需求,继而在B端大量释放供给,迅速催熟市场的作法必定走向终结。后新政时代,随着灰色地带被政策迅速厘清,加以网约车平台的运能受到挤压,正致力于剥离过剩运力和伪需求的滴滴面临着双重打击,尤其是快车的竞争优势将大大削弱。   在北上广深这样的一线城市,滴滴将不得不面对一种陌生的竞争,即以有限的车队规模保证单车盈利能力,这会给一向高喊安全的神州专车以及自称老二,不断补贴,频繁发出�人创意的易到用车以机会。   滴滴的对策不外是情怀+恫吓,一面恳请给予各种户籍平等权利,一面呼吁不要让民众失去对创新的信心和热情,同时暗示自己在去产能背景下消灭隐性失业的能力,还特意流露出对网约车价格的担忧,宣称网约车价格可能升至出租车的2倍以上。   变化 2,还会不会有并购?   账面上有大量现金的滴滴已经从化敌为友中尝到了足够甜头,从注资OFO来看高举并购大旗也是大概率事件,但启动的时机很可能大大后延。   滴滴的当务之急是在新政冲击之下完成业务的软着陆,这取决于它的政策搏奕能力,之前兰州、济南、宁波、广州、辽宁等地细则出台时,滴滴并未做出过激反应,直到更具示范意义的京沪实施草案露面才做重点应对。   依正常逻辑,握有大量市场份额、屡受垄断指责同时又因为涨价正失去舆论同盟军的滴滴会进入一个战略防御期,竞争态势上可能容忍神州、易到的猛烈反攻,未来变化也只能在政策影响完全释放之后再做观察。   变化 3、发券式营销将成过去时   滴滴的发券营销是伴随着亏损冲量模式一起发展起来的,副作用是伪需求泛滥,在滴滴运力向高端转移,运营效率打折的今天,营销手段也势将翻篇。   营销KPI将从获取更多的增量客户转向现有优质客户的维系,原有的以补贴从公共交通等渠道转移客源的营销方式将被易到、神州们更熟悉的以服务为核心的体验式营销所取代,这种全新竞争将考验滴滴的自适应力。   变化 4、冗余运能离场的挖潜   即使网约车新政如媒体呼吁的为企业留下修改的窗口,滴滴商业模式面临根本性调整也是不争的事实,滴滴用规模推高估值,用流量换GMV的套路将让位于对盈利的诉求。如果说滴滴以往的运营模式类似于RTS游戏中的爆兵流,那么在被新政拉回与竞品甚至出租车同一起跑线之后,就必然要从大局观拼回微操。   变化5:过早联姻Uber可能是一个败笔   俨然成功企业家的程维已经开始在媒体上回顾“找钱挺悲凉”的经历以及“被王兴一句话骂醒”之类的自励,不再“战栗”的他进化成了“Uber屠夫”,有资格致敬“Uber是个伟大的对手”了,但不管是习惯了抢头条的程维还是柳青,抑或是“生而骄傲”的Uber年轻人,他们的商业模式其实既不复杂也不傲娇,有的只是藏在情怀背后的简单粗暴。   回头再看,Uber在那桩交易中的获利其实远超滴滴,它拿到了滴滴17.7%的股份,制止了后者通过投资Lyft等公司染指欧美市场的野心,而流血GMV和GR包袱则被甩锅,滴滴以很高代价从Uber接手过来的冗余运力却被政策一纸烟消。   新政另一项不被重视却充满杀机的伏笔是肢解大流量的网约车平台,直接后果是消灭了拼车或顺风车这种商业模式。   以《北京市私人小客车合乘出行指导意见》为例,有4点值得关注:   1、认定合乘是不以盈利为目的的民事行为,只能分摊出行成本(燃料费和通行费)或免费互助。   这就从根本上消灭了平台赚钱的可能性也消灭了司机牟利的动机。   2、私人小客车合乘应当遵循公益合乘优先、民间互助自愿、维护合法权益、合乘信息真实、分摊成本合理、严禁非法运营的原则。   政策的潜台词显然是不鼓励在拼车、顺风车领域进行商业创新,它所倡导的是邻里、亲朋和同事间的友情互助,是那种小国寡民的理想状态。   3、合乘软件应当独立设置,不应与巡游车、网约车软件合并。   这一条尤其含沙射影,可以视为政策不允许滴滴那样的巨无霸借助合乘业务来推动平台的协同效应,而在不以盈利为目的的严苛规定下,单纯的合乘软件还有存在的可能吗?   4、合乘频次每车每天不得超过两次。   这算是最后的补刀了,友情互助都是有限制的,商业模式就别想了。   按之前易观发布的数据,滴滴顺风车去年拥有69%的市场份额,领先20.9%的嘀嗒拼车,在51用车、天天拼车近乎失声、微微拼车一夜沉沦的衬托下,可谓一柱擎天。   如果新政不做修改的雷厉风行,顺风车这个滴滴未来寄予厚望的业务场景将归于消灭,倘或再加上快车的式微,滴滴苦心构建的大出行平台就有瓦解之势了。   现在评说政策的是非功过还为时过早,毕竟它考虑的是多方利益的最大化,妥协大于激进,平衡优于变革是可以理解的,特别是在滴滴正从创新图腾进化到价格垄断的背景下,但政策也不应该指望出行公司成为“出不辞劳、入不数功”的劳模。   莎翁笔下的约翰王曾指着他为之奋斗的宝座说,“我和我的悲哀都在这里”!出行企业的野心和无奈总比倒腾学区房的上市公司要值得尊敬的多。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: