Pension investment yields will not be too high

The pension investment rate of return is not high the sina finance opinion leader (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Sun Bo nearly two years of continuous economic downturn, financial assets may not significantly exceeded the long-term access to economic growth in low investment returns, low interest rate era. Therefore, the future for a long period of time, the rate of return on pension investment will become a downward trend, which should be expected from all sectors of the community. Pension investment yields will not be too high in October 25th, according to the spokesman of the Ministry of human resources and social news, the Ministry of human resources and social planning to organize the first batch of provinces and the Social Security Fund Council signed a basic pension contract. At the same time will select the first batch of the basic pension investment management institutions. This means that the basic pension market investment operation officially launched by the community wide concern. But in the following aspects should be rational view: first, the basic pension and the nature of the national social security fund. The national social security fund as the National Pension Reserve, asset size, duration for decades, but a high proportion of investment in the stock market (the highest proportion of investment of up to 40% of total assets), is worthy of long-term institutional investors, the capital market stable development of great significance. The basic pension from the National Council for social security fund trustee, but completely different from the nature of social security fund, is currently the urban basic old-age insurance fund balance, to meet the needs of daily payment of basic pension insurance, so the investment period is relatively short, pay more attention to safety (the proportion of equity assets of not more than 30%). Two is to deal with the basic pension investment income has rational expectations. China’s rapid economic growth over the past twenty years, enterprise annuity and the national social security fund also fully enjoy the economic development dividend. Since the establishment of the national social security fund, the average annual yield of 8.82%, the enterprise annuity has been set up to yield up to 8.09%. However, in the past two years, the economy continues to fall, financial assets can not be obtained for a long time to significantly exceed the economic growth of investment returns, into the era of low interest rates. Therefore, a long time in the future, the pension investment yields downward trend will become established, the society should be expected, not looking forward to the past national pension and enterprise annuity for more than 8% of the rate of return on investment. In fact, from the experience of the United States, in 2008 before the financial crisis, the average long-term return on pension investment is also more than 6%, and after the financial crisis, pension investment returns fell to less than 5%. For example, as the American public sector pension leader of the civil service pension in California (CALPERS), in 2016 the asset size of $295 billion in fiscal year 2014-2015, the investment return rate of 2.4%, the rate of return is only 0.6% 2015-2016 fiscal year. Three basic pension market scale may be less than expected. At present, the size of the basic pension of more than 3 trillion, the media is expected to invest more than 2 trillion of the size of the operation. Theoretically able to enter the capital market size of more than 600 billion yuan. But from a practical point of view, the above forecast slightly optimistic, the reasons are as follows: first, the basic old-age insurance fund investment management approach, "相关的主题文章: