Tan Haojun cattle has gone through the river, four ministries how to force the new – Sohu comments-www.19ttt.com

Tan Haojun: "cow" has crossed the River four new ministries to force Sohu comments the Ministry of finance, Ministry of land and resources, the people’s Bank of China and CBRC four ministries recently jointly issued "on the issues related to regulate land reserves and fund management notice" requirements, land reserve institutions increased land reserve funds required for the project, government funds included in the budget strictly in accordance with the provisions of the state-owned land income fund, land revenue and other financial funds in the overall arrangement, since January 1, 2016, all banking financial institutions are not allowed to borrow loans for land reserves. At the same time, to clean up after the screening of identification for local government debt as of December 31, 2014, the stock of land reserve loans, should be included in the budget management of government funds, debt funds through the government budget funds to co-ordinate arrangements, and gradually the issuance of local government bonds to be replaced. This means that the government financing platform, land purchasing and storage mechanism in the hands of the land, will no longer be able to land reserve financing, has been out of the way of financing, but also to be repaid or debt replacement through the government budget funds the way, the local government and the platform company, land reserve institutions. It is not a small challenge, will face a huge debt pressure. As everyone knows, "a significant feature of land finance, land reserve is in the way, the use of land collateral to obtain funds from banks, and then use these funds to further land storage and city construction and development, and this is not only the carrier of land purchasing and storage mechanism, including all kinds of financing platform. Because of this, most cities have a number of government financing platform, and some even more than 10, in order to more and better use of land for financing, and for the government to continuously provide land transfer income, access to urban construction and development funds. Active in the land market, the real estate market is relatively hot under the condition that the risk of land financing is difficult to exposure, with the land market gradually clear, the real estate market in the doldrums, the risk of land financing is more and more big, the government debt crisis is becoming more and more serious. In this case, it is very important and urgent to stop the local government’s land financing, especially the land reserve financing. The problem is that the "bull" of the land reserve financing has passed the river. First of all, the vast majority of the land that the local government can control has become capital and become collateral. Under such a background, the introduction of such a new policy still has much effect, worthy of attention. Second, the company that carries on the financing through the land, including the platform company, the land purchase and purchase organization, if does not allow to use the land mortgage to carry on the financing, the risk possibly will erupt immediately. But for the most part, the formation of land use of debt financing, the scale is already quite large, rely on the government budget and government funds have no ability to cope with risks, cope with the land mortgage loan expires, the local government and the platform company, land purchasing and storage mechanism to conscientiously carry out such a new deal? Banks can not cooperate with these platform companies, land purchasing and storage institutions, so that they continue to use land purchasing and storage to maintain.

谭浩俊:“牛”已过了河 四部委新政如何发力-搜狐评论  财政部、国土资源部、中国人民银行和银监会等四部委近日联合下发《关于规范土地储备和资金管理等相关问题的通知》,要求土地储备机构新增土地储备项目所需资金,严格按照规定纳入政府性基金预算,从国有土地收益基金、土地出让收入和其他财政资金中统筹安排,自2016年1月1日起,各地不得再向银行业金融机构举借土地储备贷款。同时规定,对清理甄别后认定为地方政府债务的截至2014年12月31日的存量土地储备贷款,应纳入政府性基金预算管理,偿债资金通过政府性基金预算统筹安排,并逐步发行地方政府债券予以置换。   这意味着,政府融资平台、土地收储机构手中掌握的土地,将不能再以土地储备的方式进行融资,已经以这种方式进行融资的,也要通过政府性基金预算的方式予以偿还或进行债务置换,这对地方政府及其平台公司、土地收储机构来说,无疑是不小的挑战,将面临巨大的偿债压力。   众所周知,“土地财政”的一个显著特征,就是以土地储备的方式,利用土地抵押从银行获取资金,再利用这些资金进行进一步的土地收储以及进行城市建设和开发,且这样的载体不仅仅是土地收储机构,还包括各类融资平台。也正因为如此,多数城市都有若干家政府融资平台,有的地方甚至有十多家,以便于更多更好地利用土地进行融资,并为政府源源不断地提供土地转让收入,获得城市建设和开发的资金。   在土地市场比较活跃、房地产市场比较火热的情况下,土地融资的风险还难以暴露,随着土地市场逐步清冷,房地产市场进入低迷状态,土地融资的风险越来越大,政府债务的危机也越来越严重了。在这样的情况下,叫停地方政府的土地融资,特别是土地储备融资,就显得十分重要而紧迫。   问题在于,土地储备融资的“牛”已经过了河。首先,地方政府能够支配的土地,绝大多数已经变成了资金,变成了抵押物,在这样的大背景下,出台这样的新政还有多大效果,值得关注。   其二,凡是通过土地进行融资的公司,包括平台公司、土地收储机构,如果不允许利用土地抵押进行融资,有可能风险立刻爆发。而对于多数地方来说,利用土地融资形成的债务,规模已经相当庞大,依靠政府财政预算以及政府性基金根本没有能力应对风险、应付到期的土地抵押贷款,地方政府及其平台公司、土地收储机构能够认真地执行这样的新政吗?银行能够不与这些平台公司、土地收储机构“配合”,使其继续利用土地收储来维持债务的安全吗?这也值得高度关注。   再者,如果通过地方政府发行债券的方式进行置换,从表面看,是一个很具操作性、也是风险最小的方式,但从近两年来的实际情况看,地方政府债券发行并不是一件容易的事,如此规模的土地融资,地方政府债券根本没有能力去置换,有的甚至可能等不到债券发行,风险就将爆发。无论是地方政府还是银行,都不可能眼睁睁地看着风险爆发,而是会继续依赖土地融资,以应对可能出现的风险。   最后,一些地方政府在土地融资严重乏力、能够支配的土地已经非常有限的情况下,把目光转向行政机关、事业单位等资产,包括办公大楼等非经营性资产,并将此注入平台公司等作为抵押物,从银行进行融资。这也意味着,有的政府已经到了“一穷二白”的地步,大多数能够支配的土地、资产等,都变成了银行或其他融资机构的资产,一旦债务风险爆发,后果将十分严重。   在“牛”已经过河的情况下,四部门新政能否起到亡羊补牢的作用?如果仅仅把目标对准土地储备,并不足以对地方政府负债产生有效制约,特别是把地方政府能够支配的行政机关、事业单位资产也全部用于平台公司融资,到底会发生怎样的风险,银行提供给平台公司的资金能有多大的安全系数,是一个需要认真思考和研究的问题。   在地方政府负债冲动仍然很强,平台公司、土地收储机构等仍然主要依靠土地进行融资的大背景下,出台这样的新政是必要的。核心在于,如何增强可操作性,如何使新政不成为摆设,如何让银行贷款不悬空,如何让新政能够对地方政府的负债行为形成有效约束。如果债务置换不扩大范围,不扩展到平台公司、土地收储机构的所有土地性债务,那么平台公司及其收储机构的风险就相当大,新政也难以发挥明显的作用。当务之急,必须尽快叫停地方政府将行政机关、事业单位等的非经营性资产用于平台公司融资的做法。相关的主题文章: